2025 Tech Anti-Predictions: What Won't Make Waves in the Year Ahead

Each time a new year rolls around, IT industry pundits — myself included — spill a lot of ink (or generate a lot of pixels, to be more accurate) about technology trends that they believe will define the upcoming 12 months.

But one can also take a different tact — by predicting what won't happen in the technology realm, despite widespread belief that it will.

To that end, here's my list of "anti-predictions" for 2025. The following technological developments or practices might seem trendy, but I don't think they'll prove to be big deals over the coming year.

1. Quantum Computing

For at least several years, some folks have been predicting that we're on the verge of "Q-Day" — meaning the day when quantum computers become sufficiently practical for real-world, everyday use.

The consequences of that event will be profound, especially in the realm of cybersecurity. There, quantum computers will instantly render virtually all conventional security and data protection techniques obsolete because they'll be able to brute-force encryption and access keys in seconds.

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Here's the thing: Despite steady advancements in quantum technology — including a recent announcement by Google about a new quantum chip — I'm not convinced that Q-Day is actually on the horizon. Quantum computers remain too unreliable, due especially to limitations in quantum hardware.

Call me a quantum pessimist (or an optimist, if the prospect of quantum-powered cybersecurity breaches terrifies you, as it well might), but I just don't think 2025 will turn out to be the year of quantum.

2. Surging AI Adoption

I'm also pessimistic — or at least bearish — about expanded AI adoption by businesses over the coming year.

That's not because I don't think AI technology — especially generative AI — doesn't offer tons of potential to boost efficiency and productivity. I do.

But I also think that at this point, the typical business has already picked the low-hanging AI fruit, as it were. In other words, it has adopted AI to support basic use cases, like AI-powered customer support chatbots or AI-assisted coding. These are easy AI use cases to implement because they are not very technically complex. Plus, there are a variety of vendors that offer mature AI apps and services to do these sorts of things.

Deploying AI for more sophisticated purposes — like fully automating complex and unpredictable workflows — is likely to prove much harder. It may require organizations to build their own AI solutions, a complicated and time-consuming process. The AI governance and security implications of more complex AI technology also present a barrier.

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For these reasons, I don't foresee massive shifts in the near future in the way most organizations use AI. This may change down the road as advanced AI technology matures. But for 2025, at least, don't expect major transformations in the way the average business uses AI.

3. The Rise of AI Data Centers

On a similar note, I don't think we're on the cusp of a massive rollout of so-called AI data centers — meaning data centers that cater to AI workloads.

This is because, on the whole, I don't see the typical business having a need for data center space and hardware tailored for AI because the typical business is not going to develop complex AI technology on its own. It's more likely to use AI tools or services from external vendors. And while those vendors will have a need for AI-friendly data centers, I doubt they're going to create enough demand on their own to upend the data center industry.

It's worth noting, too, that even when companies do infrastructure to power AI workloads, most will probably turn to the public cloud to obtain it because they don't want to have to purchase or maintain AI hardware. This means that to the extent that AI does drive data center growth, most of it will take place in data centers owned by hyperscalers (like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google), not private data centers or colocation facilities.

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4. Energy-Efficient Computing

The energy-hungry nature of AI workloads has prompted more than a few predictions in recent years that businesses will seek more energy-efficient computing solutions so that they can use AI without creating massive carbon footprints. Energy-efficient computing entails, theoretically, hardware that consumes energy more efficiently, as well as optimizations at the software level that improve the energy efficiency of applications.

On the surface, a pivot toward energy-efficient computing solutions makes sense. But I don't think it's going to happen on a large scale in 2025, for several reasons.

One is that folks (including this website, which was covering "green computing" 15 years ago) have been talking about energy-efficient computing for years. But the idea of making energy efficiency a priority in IT planning didn't really catch on then, and I am doubtful it will now.

A second factor is that, overall, sustainability in IT feels less trendy today than it was a year or two ago. For better or worse, businesses face less pressure than they once did from shareholders, regulators, and customers to show that they are good stewards of the environment — so they have fewer motives for investing in energy-efficient computing solutions.

The third reason why I don't think energy-efficient computing will be trendy in 2025 is that, as I explained above, I foresee limited expansion of AI, and therefore less growth in energy consumption.

To be sure, some organizations will invest in energy-efficient computing solutions over the coming year. But don't expect this to become a major trend.

5. Edge Computing and Edge AI

I've long thought that edge computing is overhyped — yet it has continued to be hyped. In fact, the hype has seemed only to intensify in the age of AI, which has given rise to trends like edge inference.

I'm here to tell you that I don't think AI will drive massive investment in edge computing architectures any more than previous technology waves did. To be sure, there will always be reason to deploy certain workloads at the edge, where they may perform better due to lower latency. But due to challenges like high cost of computing power at the edge relative to data centers and edge device security concerns, I have a hard time believing that 2025 will see large-scale adoption of edge computing strategies.

6. FinOps and Cost Optimization

Optimizing IT infrastructure costs, especially in the cloud (where this practice is known as FinOps), has been a trending topic for several years. I think this may change in 2025 due to receding interest in cost efficiency.

There are a couple of reasons why. First, I'm optimistic that overall economic conditions will continue to improve, reducing the pressure businesses face to rein in costs. Fears of imminent recession seem to have faded, and IT departments will be able to get away with wasting a bit of money on cloud resources.

Second, I suspect that by this point, the typical organization has already taken steps to optimize infrastructure costs, such as rightsizing servers and rooting out shadow IT. This means there's simply less room for innovation on the cost-efficiency front than there once was.

This is not to say that organizations will stop caring entirely about cost optimization or FinOps in the new year. I just don't think these topics will be top-of-mind in the way they were previously.

7. Software Supply Chain Security

Another entry on my list of practices that were once trendy but may cease to be so in 2025 is software supply chain security. Revelations about the breach of SolarWinds, a widely used IT platform, in late 2020 drove a surge of worries about the risks inherent in third-party software. This made supply chain security a very trendy topic over the past several years.

But as we enter 2025, I don't think supply chain security poses as much of a challenge as it did, thanks largely to increased investment by businesses in mitigating supply chain risks. To be sure, supply chain security threats will continue to abound, so organizations must continue to take them very seriously. But now that supply chain defenses have matured, I don't foresee as much hype surrounding this issue.

8. 5G Networking

5G networking technology, too, has crossed the line from being trendy to mundane, meaning it won't remain a hot topic in 2025.

If 5G drove a lot of headlines in past years, it was due in no small part to the challenges of 5G adoption. But those stumbling blocks have mostly receded, and 5G has become the new norm — which is why I don't think we'll hear nearly as much about it in the new year as we did circa 2023.