3Com Palm devices continue to dominate Windows CE

Generally, when Microsoft enters a new market, people expect the softwaregiant to dominate. But that's not always been the case: Witness theMicrosoft Network, which holds a very distant second place to AmericaOnline, the juggernaut of online services. It's also not true in the realmof handheld computers, where 3Com's line of Palm devices continues todominate Microsoft's Windows CE. And even though Windows CE is expected togrow dramatically over the next few years, most of that growth will come atthe expense of other contenders, not Palm.

For example, in 1999, 3Com owns 54% of the handheld computer market,compared to only 8% for Windows CE. "Other handhelds" accounts for 38%. By2003, Windows CE is expected to jump to 18% of the market, but 3Com shouldhold steady at 60%, while "others" drop to 22%. These figures, which comefrom a market study by independent research firm Computer Economics, aren'texactly good news for Windows CE.

"Look for Microsoft CE to gain more market share than Palm systems duringthe next five years, but expect 3Com to maintain its dominance in thehandheld market," said Michael Erbschloe, the Director of Research atComputer Economics. "The number of handheld computers being shipped will[also] increase steadily during the next five years."

With Windows NT/2000 moving into the Embedded market and Windows 9x gettinga new lease on life with a new Consumer Windows expected in 2000, it's hardto understand where Windows CE fits in. A relatively confusing array ofincompatible hardware may very damn the product to niche status forever,especially given the market dominance by Palm