1997 in Review: Prophet or Loss

In my October 1996 editorial, I made several predictions for 1997. Have my predictions stood the test of time, or should I be stoned as a false prophet? I'll score myself prediction by prediction on a scale of 1 (stone-worthy) to 5 (excellent).

Predictions and Scores
Microsoft Cluster Server (Wolfpack) has the potential to increase themarket for clusters tenfold. Although Wolfpack got mind share, it has onlyrecently shipped as part of Windows NT Server, Enterprise Edition (NTS/E) andhas not significantly increased the market for clusters­yet. Microsoftpositions NTS/E as a high-end solution, ignoring the potential in the small tomidsized market. This positioning may keep the number of cluster-awareapplications low, which will cause the market for clusters to grow more slowlythan I predicted. Score: 2.

The "Designed for Windows NT and Windows 95" Logo will forceWindows 95 vendors to support NT Workstation. The key to that prediction wasMicrosoft retiring the "Designed for Windows 95" logo in January 1997.Bowing to pressure, Microsoft has revised its plan, and the logo isn't scheduledfor retirement until January 1998. So next month, we'll see a new "Designedfor Windows NT 5.0 and Windows 98" logo. Despite the lackluster logo, thenumber of NT Workstation applications increased significantly in 1997. Score: 2.

Pentium Pro systems will replace Pentiums and come bundled with NTWorkstation, increasing NT Workstation's market share. Actually, the PentiumII replaced Pentiums, but most Pentium IIs shipped with Windows 95.Nevertheless, NT Workstation shipments tripled, to about 3 million.

According to International Data Corporation, NT Workstation continues toshow interesting growth, with shipments increasing 177 percent annually. Inaddition, in the past 6 months, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) havemore than doubled the number of machines on which they preinstall NTWorkstation. Score: 3.

RISC vendors will speed up the development of Intel's 64-bit chip andwill fuel the development of a 64-bit version of NT. Although the PowerPCrunning NT turned out to be a dud, the Alpha, the only RISC system left for NT,is gaining momentum. The 64-bit version of NT 5.0 (beta) shipped in September1997 for Alpha-based computers. Alpha now owns the 64-bit NT market. Thepressure is on Intel to deliver a 64-bit chip for NT. Score: 5.

If NT's new directory is as good as NetWare's NDS, NT Server will put aserious dent in NetWare sales. The NT 5.0 Active Directory (AD) will be goodenough to compete with NDS, and even though AD hasn't shipped, it has alreadyheld back NetWare's market potential. NDS for NT and Banyan System's StreetTalkfor NT are unlikely to have any impact on the rollout of AD. NT customers willvery probably use NT 5.0's native (and free) AD system. Score: 5.

We will see a substantial increase in business-critical applications forNT Server and an increase in NT Workstation applications. In 1997, Microsoftformed the Application Developer Customer Unit (ADCU), which hired hundreds oftechnical evangelists to spread the gospel of building business-criticalapplications on top of NT and BackOffice. Windows NT Magazine'sSolutions Directory (http://www.winntsolutions.com) contains more than athousand of these applications, and the number is growing at a rate of more than200 applications per month. Score: 4.

Microsoft BackOffice will force competitors to tightly integrate theirback office-type applications with NT Server. IBM Software Servers, OracleInterOffice, and NetScape SuiteSpot are examples of the type of integration Iwas referring to. The key to this battle for the back office market is thenumber of business-critical applications that will be available on theseplatforms in 2 years. Whatever company has the most NT applications based on itsplatform wins. Right now, the race is between SQL Server- and Oracle-basedapplications. Score: 5.

Time to Stone the Prophet?
OK, my predictions were not perfect. In several cases, I predicted theresult, but the way it happened was not predictable. One thing is for sure: 1997was an incredible year for NT. I am eager to see the changes we'll be lookingback on a year from now.