7 Predictions for ‘97

Clusters: In August, I wrote thatWolfpack, Microsoft's new clustering technology, has the potential to increasethe existing market for high-availability clusters tenfold. Before any producthas shipped, Microsoft has already partnered with the best enterprise players inthe market. With the help of Digital, Tandem, IBM, Compaq, Intel, Amdahl,Stratus, Oracle, Vinca, and others, Microsoft has an incredible opportunity tobring this enterprise solution to the high-volume market. Look for the firstWolfpack-compliant solutions in the first quarter of 1997.

The "Designed for Windows NT andWindows 95" logo: This new logo, which takes effect in January, willforce all Windows 95 applications vendors to support NT. Look for a hugeincrease in native NT desktop applications.

Pentium Pro: By the beginning of1997, a fully configured 180MHz Pentium Pro-based (P6) system will cost around$2500. This development will spell the end of the Pentium series for corporatebuyers. By spring, a P6 with 32MB of RAM will be the standard business desktop.Up to now, only RISC vendors were pre-installing NT Workstation, but now it willcome bundled with the P6. This bundling will triple NT Workstation's market. Onthese systems, NT will significantly increase performance over Windows 95.

RISC vendors: The combination of a500MHz Alpha, a faster PowerPC, and the P6 will put a serious dent in thelow-end UNIX workstation and server market. With the exception of SunMicrosystems, UNIX vendors have already begun to sell NT-based solutions. RISCvendors will spur Intel to get the P7, which HP codeveloped, in beta by 1997.All this chip power will fuel the move to make NT a 64-bit OS, pushing it evenhigher into the enterprise.

Directory service: For the past year,Novell's NetWare Directory Service (NDS) has beat up NT's directory system,while NT has dominated NetWare as an application server platform. Once anorganization starts depending on NT for serving applications, file and printservices aren't far behind. In fact, the directory service battle is NetWare'slast stand. If NT's new directory is as good as NDS, NT will put a serious dentin NetWare sales. However, if NT loses this battle, NetWare will continue todominate as a networking platform and market share will increase. Look for Phase1 of NT's new directory service in the first quarter of 1997.

Third-party support: If I stacked thepress releases I've received about new NT applications in the past three months,the pile would be nine feet tall! In 1997, we will see an increase inbusiness-critical applications on NT. Already, more client/server accountingpackages are available for NT than any other platform. Most application vendorswho built their business on AS/400, UNIX, Mac, HP, and Windows are migratingtheir business-critical applications to NT. In addition to software vendors,hardware and service vendors will make NT their number one strategic platform in1997. By the middle of 1997, we will start seeing device drivers and powermanagement for NT. This development will further close the Win95 gap, making theselection of NT Workstation for the desktop easier than ever.

Competition for the back office:Remember when we used to buy a word processor separately from a spreadsheet?Then came Microsoft Office and the beginning of buying suites. Similarly, theInternet/intranet is becoming a serious development platform that requires asolid database, systems management, host connectivity, document management,directory services, and messaging. Pricing and packaging will make buying thewhole suite easy. Sensing this trend, IBM, Oracle, and Netscape have introducedproducts that compete directly with Microsoft BackOffice. This increasedcompetition will force tighter integration of the suite with NT as a competitiveadvantage. In addition, these solid offerings will continue to push NT as anopen platform.