Anti-Predictions 2025: What Won't Happen in the Year Ahead

Predictions season is in full swing here at Forrester. As we do every year around this time, we recently released more than 150 predictions about what we think will happen in the coming year, and we invite both clients and non-clients to check out the wealth of materials we have to help you plan.

But last year, we started a new tradition: something we called "anti-predictions." These are our predictions about things we think won't happen in the year ahead. It's a unique take on our predictions, and based on the response we got last year, we decided to round up more anti-predictions for 2025.

AI PCs Will Hit the Market, But Enterprises Won't See Major Benefits Until 2027

AI PCs were the talk of most major tech conferences in 2024, but 2025 won't be the year of their widespread adoption. Why? Simply, their usefulness is still limited to a niche set of personas. Despite increasing shipments of AI PCs and the expected uptick from Windows 10's end of life, the benefits of using an AI PC today only apply to a small segment of users. On the enterprise side, it's creative roles, designers, data scientists, and those using the ecosystem of applications that can utilize dedicated AI hardware who are most likely to see the value of investing in AI PCs. While the move to Windows 11 will undoubtedly drive some AI PC adoption, just 39% of decision-makers in Forrester's latest Digital Workplace And Employee Technology Survey indicate that their company is increasing their refresh rate for PCs, with less than half of those doing so to take advantage of new hardware capabilities.

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We won't see a consumer groundswell for AI PCs either: According to Forrester's recent Consumer Pulse Survey, just 7% of US online adults say that their next PC purchase will be an AI PC, and another 67% indicated that they don't use AI enough to require an AI PC. Still, tech leaders should begin piloting AI PCs for select users to prepare for a future in which a vast application ecosystem can take advantage of AI capabilities embedded in nearly every device, likely by 2027.

AI Vendor Consolidation Won't Occur Due to Sustained Enterprise Demand and Vibrant Startup Activity

While we predict that some enterprises will scale back on AI prematurely in 2025, overall AI adoption is continuously growing. The AI vendor market is thriving with diversity and innovation, and we haven't seen any signs of consolidation so far. The pace of innovation and competition is relentless, with continuously emerging startups and AI solutions further discouraging vendor consolidation. Moreover, there is high demand for specialized AI solutions in industries such as healthcare, finance, and banking to address their specific needs, fueling the growth of niche vendors. Lastly, with advancements in cloud computing (AWS, Azure, GCP), open-source tools (PyTorch, TensorFlow), and AI platforms (Azure AI, Hugging Face, IBM Watson, OpenAI), the barrier to entry for creating AI solutions is extremely low, enabling more startups to enter niche markets rather than consolidating them.

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Putting Ads Into Streaming Services Won't Drive Upgrades — Or Cancellations

Streaming providers that rolled out ad-supported options are not losing viewers. In fact, ad-supported subscription video on-demand use is growing up to three times faster than ad-free services, according to some sources. And the price hikes on most platforms are driving even more users into their ad-tier plans. For Netflix, currently more than 50% of its new subscribers have joined its ad tier, and that percentage will continue to tick up each quarter. Any concerns about ads causing users to cancel streaming services have been allayed — only 7% of US consumers polled by Forrester earlier this year canceled a streaming service because they didn't want to see ads. So in 2025, subscription fatigue will continue to be a thing, but streamers with ads will have the least to worry about.

— Sharyn Leaver, Chief Research Officer

This article originally appeared on Forrester's Featured Blogs.